February 2020 and Full Year 2020 Dividend Re-Forecast

Hey Guys,

One of my duties in my day job involves coming up with models for forecasting future cash flows based on various micro and macroeconomic assumptions.  Things like inflation rates, contracted sales, market statistics, etc.
I enjoy forecasting and trying to get my models to come close to actual numbers as possible.  This is really all an exercise in playing a guessing game as no one can predict the future, but you can take your best calculated guess.  I play a lot with my excel models to see how different assumptions lead to different results and coming up with various scenarios.

This has led me to take a similar approach when it comes to forecasting my dividend cash flow.  I do this because as I mentioned above, I find it assuming to see what the future will look like by playing around with some assumptions.  This also gives me an idea of where my dividend income will be based on my current investment pattern.

So, lets see what February 2020 and Full Year 2020 has in store!

At the start of the year, I come up with a forecast and use this as a basis to compare against actual results on a monthly basis.


Based on the table above, I was expecting Dividend income of $271.76 (CAD) in February 2020 and $6,419.85 (CAD) in total for 2020.

The other thing I like do is re-forecast every month's dividend income as I go through the year as now my assumptions have changed based on market and growth patterns.


Based on the table above, I'm now expecting Dividend income of $271.82 (CAD) in February 2020 and $6,310.21 (CAD) in total for 2020.

You'll notice the YTD amount has decreased since the original forecast and that's because I have adjusted my expectations of growth for the year.  I play around with this adjustment throughout the year based on how the year is doing so far, and since we're still very early into the year, it's a very big guess.

The month of February itself, I'm expecting to come in close to my original forecast, as you can see from the above two tables, not much has changed between the orginal forecast and the reforecast.

I'm looking forward to getting over $1k in a single month for Dividend income, and according to the Re-Forecast, this could come as soon as June.

Below is my snapshot between Forecast vs Actuals for 2019.  Overall, it was a pretty good year, with my portfolio breaking the $4k threshold for the first time in a single year and my forecasted result coming in with over 91% accuracy.


My forecast for 2019 was Dividend income of $3,852.76 (CAD), which I had come up with at the start of January 2019.  I ultimately finished with a full year Dividend income of $4,183.81 (CAD) and the largest drivers for the variance were March / June / December and those months are harder to forecast because of the quarterly dividends, whereas the monthly ones are more consistent.  However, I was still able to achieve over 91% accuracy with my forecast.  

So let's see how 2020 ends up playing out and how accurate my initial forecast is by the time we finish off the year.  So stay tuned for my monthly results where I'll compare my actual dividends with my Forecast and Reforecast.

Summary:
  • February 2020 Dividend Forecast - $271.76 (CAD)
  • February 2020 Dividend Re-Forecast - $271.82 (CAD)
  • Full Year 2020 Dividend Forecast - $6,310.21 (CAD)
Previous Results / Forecasts:
Do you forecast your monthly or annual dividend income?  Let me know in the comments below!

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